Democrats lead in polls for the US midterm elections, but recent polling has missed in several races, and experts say the results could still differ from what surveys suggest.
Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 seats needed to flip control of the House of Representatives, according to the polls. They are tied or narrowly ahead in key Senate races. A recent New York Times poll showed a tie in the South Carolina Senate race, a state Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024. Recent CNN surveys put Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine.
The report notes several past misses. Trump outperformed predictions in 2016 and 2024, and his narrow 2020 defeat came after most surveys pointed to a larger win for Joe Biden. Earlier this year, polls suggested Democrat Abdul El-Sayed would win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary by double digits. He lost by 1 percentage point. In Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary, a candidate with a lead approaching 20 points lost by a fraction of a percent.
Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said polling has grown harder because many Americans no longer answer landlines or unknown calls, and many who are contacted decline to take part. He said conservatives, especially on the far right, are "much more anti-establishment by nature" and "don't participate in anything." If Republican voters are undercounted and pollsters do not adjust for this, the data could tilt toward Democrats.
The report also says some experts describe the electorate as calcified, with fewer swing voters. It cites Republican cash advantages for final-weeks attack ads and changes to House district boundaries that may limit seat changes. Midterm polls have been more accurate in recent years, the report says, partly because Trump was not on the ballot. Individual polls carry a margin of error, and polling averages can be more reliable than single surveys.