Democrats appear to lead in the latest public opinion surveys ahead of the US midterm elections, according to the BBC. The report cautions that polls have not always been reliable and that this year could produce surprises.
The BBC lays out three possible outcomes. In the first, a strong Democratic wave lets the party win the House with well over the 218 seats needed for a majority and take the Senate with a seat or two to spare. The report says this would reflect a stinging rebuke of President Trump and his Republican Party.
In the second, Democrats win a House majority that is not sizable, and flip only a seat or two in the Senate. The report says Democratic leaders would then need to manage their left and centre members to pass legislation.
In the third, Republicans hold both chambers of Congress. The report says this would require the polls to be wrong and the toss-up races to mostly go Republican. It also says control of the House could come down to California, where mail-in ballots take days to count, and that Republicans might win a slim House majority partly through redrawn district lines in Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
The report notes that midterm elections historically tend to favor the out-of-power party. It cites a historically unpopular president, a war with Iran that has raised consumer costs, and controversial policies on immigration enforcement and data centre construction as conditions that could fuel a Democratic wave.